Is a Recession Coming?

Yes. Without a doubt.  Most definitely.  100%.  For sure. 

But I'm no Bran Stark.   I only know because there is ALWAYS a recession coming.  

Recessions are a natural part of the economic cycle, which is as fundamental to our existence as sunrise and sunset.  

Here's how it works (starting with the good stuff):

1.       Expansion (morning)
2.       Peak (high noon)
3.       Recession (night)
4.       Trough (midnight)

Rinse and repeat.

We know sunrise will follow sunset will follow sunrise.   We know expansions will follow recessions will follow expansions. 

The difference is we can't set our watches to the economic cycle.  The sequence is reliable, but the timing is unpredictable.   (Thankfully recessions only last about 11 months.  Expansions usually go on for 5 years.)

So instead of guessing when the next recession is coming, we just own investment portfolios that don't depend on the time of day.

Is it 11:59am?  Maybe. 

Is it 12:01pm?  Maybe. 

Does it matter?  Not at all.