Asset Allocation

Own the Racetrack

Last week, the investment quilt taught us that chasing returns is a great way to slice your long-term return in half.   Buying and selling based on last year's… last month's… last week's returns is a surefire way to buy high and sell low.

And so we buy and hold…. and then hold some more. 

But what do we buy and then hold?   A diversified portfolio.

The "Asset Alloc." in the white boxes stand for Asset Allocation - aka a diversified portfolio.   Notice how it's never the best and never the worst.  A diversified portfolio loves the middle way (points if you picked up that zen reference.)

And because we know it will be in the middle over time, there's no anxiety about what to do.   We don't need to worry if NOW is the best time to buy or sell something.   

We don’t' need to worry if we picked the right horse because we own the whole race track. 

Investment Quilt.png

The Investment Quilt

Colors!  Pretty!!!

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Each colored square is an ingredient in your investment stew.  If you're a client of The Financial Zen Group, most of these ingredients are in your portfolio.

The ingredients are sorted from top to bottom.  The best performing ingredients are at the top.  The worst are at the bottom. 

Look at the first column, for example.  In 2003 "EM Equity" aka Emerging Markets was the best ingredient.  It had a 56.3% return in 2003.   

The worst ingredient in 2003 was cash.   Cash only earned you 1%.

Make sense?

One of the many things the "Investment Quilt" teaches us is that past performance is a lousy indicator of future results.  Therefore you should not "chase returns" by getting in and out of the market based on what it just did. 

Follow emerging markets from year to year. 

It's either the best or the worst.  And it's usually the worst right after it was the best. 

If Wall Street has fooled you into thinking market timing works, then you'll probably invest after it was the best, just in time for it to be the worst.   And then sell it after it was the worst, right before it's the best. 

In other words, buying and selling at exactly the wrong times.  Studies confirm this happens consistently.  The average investor gets half of the market returns because they are always buying and selling at the wrong time. 

The solution?  Never sell.  Buy and hold and then hold some more.  We know the market's long-term return is 10%.  That's pretty darn good.  Why would you mess with that?